为什么说渥太华的“中国牌”打对了？

　　Once a mere irritant, the softwood-lumber dispute is rapidly becoming a perilous symbol of U.S. indifference to its treaty obligations——and its trading partners. So it is fitting that Ottawa is playing the China card as it delivers subtle and not-so-subtle warnings about the long-term consequences of this behaviour.

　　加拿大和美国的软木材纠纷当初只是一种让加拿大气愤的事，但是现在，这一纠纷正迅速成为美国在贸易协议问题上对贸易合伙人背信弃义的危险象征。渥太华此时打出中国牌，巧妙地对美国这种行为作出警告，暗示美国如果长期这样下去的话，美国将自食其果。

　　Two days ago, in Beijing, Natural Resources Minister John McCallum pointedly noted that China's hunger for the Alberta oil sands was so strong that the country could be importing 400,000 barrels a day within seven years. And although he cutely downplayed the connection with softwood after a meeting with two of China's most influential oil executives, the implication was clear: If the United States continued to behave as an unreliable trade ally, there were other markets for Canada's huge supply of natural resources.

　　两天前，在北京访问的自然资源部长 John McCallum指出：中国对亚伯达油砂矿资源极度渴求，今后7年内，中国对加拿大的石油进口可能达到40万桶/日。尽管他在与中国两大石油公司的高层管理人士会谈后明确表示，能源和软木之间没有联系，但其含意十分明显：如果美国继续不履行协议，加拿大将向其他市场大量出口天然资源。

　　That meeting was merely one in an escalating series of warnings. In an address to the Economic Club of New York earlier this month, Prime Minister Paul Martin noted that the U.S. refusal to abide by repeated orders from North American Free Trade Agreement panels to stop slapping duties on Canada's softwood exports was a "breach of faith." After itemizing the massive extent of U.S. dependence on Canadian energy supplies, he made delicate references to the booming markets in India and China-and their hunger for resources.

　　那次会谈只是加拿大给美国的不断升级的警告之一。本月初，早期马丁总理在纽约经济俱乐部 (Economic Club of New York) 演讲时指出，美国再三拒绝遵守北美自由贸易协定 (NAFTA) 仲裁机构的裁定——即停止对加拿大软木材征收惩罚性关税—是“背信行为”。在详细分析了美国对加拿大的能源依赖的情况后，他巧妙地提及了急速发展的印度和中国市场，以及他们对资源的渴求。

　　Such warnings are long overdue. A mere day before Mr. Martin spoke, yet another NAFTA panel declared, for what it pointedly observed to be the fourth time, that U.S. countervailing duties on softwood were illegal. The U.S., having lost multiple appeals on the issue and having been ordered to give back the $5 billion in pocketed duties, keeps calling for talks. Canada has uncharacteristically balked; the United States must first agree to abide by its commitments and work to devise a more effective approach to dispute settlement. As B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell noted approvingly yesterday in a meeting with The Globe's editorial board, "That's not talking tough. That's talking smart."

　　加拿大早该发出这样的警告了。就在马丁发表讲话的前一天，北美自由贸易协定仲裁机构进行了第四次裁决，裁定美国对加拿大木材征收高额关税是非法的。美国对北美自由贸易协定仲裁机构的裁决的多次上诉全部失败。而且，美国多次被下令向加拿大退还所征收的约50亿加元的税款，必须勒令美国与加拿大进行贸易谈判。加拿大此次一反常态地采取了强硬立场，要求美国必须首先同意遵守它的诺言并且努力设法更加有效地解决争端。卑诗省长Gordon Campbell昨天与《环球邮报》编辑部会谈时满意地表示：“加拿大不是在讲很话。加拿大讲话更艺术了”。

　　Even if Ottawa didn't have to send a signal to Washington, playing the China card would be good strategy. China is now Canada's second-largest trading partner. Two-way trade was $30.8-billion last year. That leaves huge room to grow. Last month, Mr. Martin and Chinese President Hu Jintao signed seven agreements, including pacts on air transport and rail technology. Yesterday, in another shot across U.S. bows, Mr. McCallum grandly announced that $2.5-million in funding for the Canadian Wood Export Program would be targeted at the Chinese market this year. There is no danger that China will soon replace the United States as Canada's closest and largest trading partner. North America is now the largest trading bloc on the planet. But such ties depend on trust. Sadly, with its supreme carelessness on the softwood file, the U.S. is straining that trust to the limit.

　　即使渥太华不必要向华盛顿暗示，打中国牌本身就是一个好策略。中国现在是加拿大的第二大贸易伙伴。去年的双向贸易额达到308亿元，而且还有巨大的增长空间。上个月，马丁和中国国家主席胡锦涛签署了七项协议，其中包括航空和铁路等领域的合作协议。昨天，美国的后背又挨了加拿大一剑：McCallum隆重宣布，加拿大政府将拨款250万，帮助加国木材出口商开发中国市场。很快，中国将会替代美国成为加拿大最亲密和最大的贸易伙伴，这对加拿大来说百利而无一害。北美现在是全世界最大的贸易壁垒，要保持这一壁垒，大家彼此间要相互信任。令人悲哀的是，美国在软木材纠纷问题上的立场让这种信任到了最低程度。

　　编后：以上是加拿大全国发行的最大日报《环球邮报》9月13日发表的社论。理静、Matt Trueman、贾宁扬编译。

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